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ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES — By Prime Brief Media

The United Arab Emirates will formally exit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the broader OPEC+ alliance from May 1, 2026, marking the end of a decades-long membership that has been central to the architecture of global oil markets.

The historic withdrawal, confirmed by UAE officials on Tuesday, represents the most significant fracture within the oil producers' cartel in years and is expected to inject fresh volatility into crude markets already strained by the ongoing military confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The UAE, which produces approximately 3.2 million barrels of crude oil per day, has long been one of OPEC's most influential members. However, tensions over production quotas have simmered for years, with Abu Dhabi repeatedly arguing that its allocation under the OPEC+ framework has been unfairly restrictive, preventing the country from fully capitalising on its substantial production capacity.

"The decision has been taken after careful consideration of the national interest and the long-term strategic positioning of the UAE in the global energy landscape," a senior UAE official familiar with the discussions told Prime Brief Media on condition of anonymity. "The current quota system no longer reflects market realities or the UAE's legitimate aspirations."

The withdrawal comes at a particularly volatile moment for global energy markets. The US/Israel-Iran war, now in its eighth week, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial tanker traffic, disrupting approximately one-fifth of the world's petroleum product supplies. Crude oil prices have surged to multi-year highs, with Bonny Light, Nigeria's benchmark grade, averaging $116.84 per barrel during the conflict period.

Against this backdrop, the UAE's exit from OPEC+ is expected to amplify uncertainty. Without the constraints of a quota, Abu Dhabi could increase production significantly, potentially moderating prices. However, such a move could also trigger a price war if other producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, respond by opening their own taps to defend market share.

Energy analysts have described the UAE's decision as a potential turning point. "This is not just about the UAE. It raises existential questions about OPEC's ability to function as a coherent market management mechanism," said a Lagos-based petroleum economist. "If the UAE thrives outside the cartel, others may follow. The Gulf crisis has already fractured regional unity. OPEC's internal coherence could be the next casualty."

For Nigeria, Africa's largest crude oil producer and a long-standing OPEC member, the UAE's exit carries significant implications. Nigeria has consistently struggled to meet its OPEC production quota due to infrastructure constraints, oil theft, and underinvestment. The recent surge in global prices has provided welcome fiscal relief, but any sustained price decline triggered by increased UAE production could reverse these gains.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources have not issued formal statements on the UAE's withdrawal. However, a senior official who spoke on condition of anonymity indicated that the government is monitoring developments closely. "Nigeria remains committed to OPEC and its objectives, but we recognise that the global energy landscape is evolving rapidly. We will continue to engage with all stakeholders to protect our national interest," the official said.

Prime Brief Media continues to monitor developments in global energy markets and will provide updates on the implications of the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC+.