19 May, 2026
On Sunday, May 18, 2026, Sheikh Ahmad Gumi sat before a television camera and made a statement that has set the entire country on edge.
Speaking about the bandits who have terrorized Nigeria’s North-West killing, kidnapping, and collecting millions in ransom, the Kaduna-based cleric said something that sounded more like a justification than a condemnation. He argued that if the bandits stop collecting ransom, they will lose the money they need to “finance their war machine.” He further claimed that the same government fighting them is “bombarding us.”
Yes, “us.”
That single word delivered casually by a man who has acted as an informal government mediator with bandit leaders has sparked a firestorm. Many Nigerians are now asking a hard question: Are we slowly normalizing a multi-billion-naira kidnapping industry because of careless words from influential people?
In this post, we will walk through the security implications of such statements, lay out the chilling data behind Nigeria’s kidnapping economy, and most importantly, explore what must change if we are ever going to turn the tide.
When Words Become Weapons
Gumi’s statement is not just an isolated controversial remark. It is a window into a dangerous kind of rhetoric that carries real-world consequences. Here is why words like his matter deeply.
1. It Legitimizes a Criminal Enterprise
When a respected religious figure frames ransom payments as a “war machine” necessity rather than a heinous crime, it reduces the moral stigma around kidnapping. This creates a moral hazard. Academic research on conflict zones shows that when armed groups receive even indirect legitimacy through public discourse, their recruitment and operational capacity increase. Every sympathetic soundbite helps kidnappers sleep a little better at night.
2. It Undermines Our Troops and Security Efforts
Gumi’s phrasing blurs the line between a mediator and a sympathizer. If a man who has sat across the table from bandit leaders is now speaking of “us” under bombardment, what signal does that send to the soldiers who have lost colleagues fighting these very groups? In 2025 alone, Nigeria recorded 599 banditry incidents resulting in 2,742 casualties. Troop morale matters, and careless words can chip away at it.
3. It Erodes Public Trust in the State
A prominent voice with access to power questioning the legitimacy of military operations further erodes the fragile trust citizens have in the government’s ability to protect them. A recent report by Nextier warns that banditry is evolving into a “self-reinforcing cycle driven by state fragility, weakening public trust, and the growing influence of non-state armed groups.” Words that amplify doubt accelerate that cycle.
4. It Deepens Dangerous Divides
Gumi’s language has often carried ethnic and religious undertones. In a country where over 190,150 people have been killed by bandits, Boko Haram, and suspected armed herdsmen between July 2009 and March 2026, with 128,750 of them Christians and 61,400 moderate Muslims, any rhetoric that appears to take sides with the perpetrators is like pouring petrol on a burning house.
The Kidnapping Economy by the Numbers (You Need to See This)
To understand why Gumi’s words are so dangerous, you have to see the scale of the disaster. This is not a small problem; it is a booming criminal economy.
- What Happened The Number Period
- Total people abducted 4,722 July 2024 – June 2025
- Total kidnapping incidents 997 July 2024 – June 2025
- Total ransom demanded ₦48 billion July 2024 – June 2025
- Verified ransom actually paid ₦2.57 billion ($1.66 million) July 2024 – June 2025
- Deaths from banditry violence 762 July 2024 – June 2025
- Banditry incidents (escalation) 599 January – December 2025
- Casualties from those incidents 2,742 January – December 2025
- Christians killed (2025) ~7,500 2025 alone
- Christians abducted (2025) ~8,500 2025 alone
Sources: SBM Intelligence, Intersociety, Nextier
The North-West remains the epicentre. Zamfara alone recorded 1,203 victims, and Kaduna and Katsina are not far behind. Meanwhile, the crisis is spreading. The South-East and South-South are seeing a rise in targeted abductions, and in May 2026, at least 82 schoolchildren were abducted across Borno and Oyo States in a single month.
There is also a cruel economic irony at play. Because the naira has lost so much value, the dollar equivalent of ransom payments has barely moved, from $1.13 million in 2022 to $1.66 million in 2025. To compensate, kidnappers demand ever-higher naira amounts. Kidnapping has become a hedge against inflation, and the ransom pool keeps growing.
Our Spending Paradox: Trillions Poured In, Security Crumbles
If money alone were the solution, Nigeria would be the safest country in Africa. Look at the security budget trajectory:
Year Security Budget
- 2017 ₦1.1 trillion
- 2024 ₦3.85 trillion
- 2025 ₦6.57 trillion
- 2026 ₦5.41 trillion (9% of total budget)
Sources: Premium Times, New Telegraph
In 2025, Nigeria’s military spending jumped 55% to $2.1 billion, making us the second-biggest military spender in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, outcomes are getting worse. Why?
A big reason is the allocation breakdown. Out of the Ministry of Defence’s proposed 2026 budget of about ₦3.154 trillion, ₦2.39 trillion is consumed by personnel costs and allowances. Only ₦464 billion is left for capital projects, equipment, and actual operations. Furthermore, of the ₦336.76 billion approved for security equipment in 2025, only ₦16.71 billion (about 7%) was actually released.
We are spending trillions to pay salaries, not to buy drones, secure borders, or gather intelligence. That is not a security strategy; it is a payroll.
So, What Should We Do? A Realistic Roadmap
Blaming individuals like Gumi is important, but it is not enough. The system itself must change. Here is what a practical, multi-pronged solution looks like, drawn from experts and policy documents.
1. Restructure the Security Architecture
As analyst Umar Yakubu puts it, “pouring endless funds into an unoptimized framework is not a long-term strategy.” We need a dedicated National Border Security Force with technology and ring-fenced funding to stop the free flow of arms through our porous borders. The military must also be gradually withdrawn from internal police duties so it can focus on its constitutional role: external defence.
2. De-centralize Policing
A country of 230 million people with fewer than 400,000 police officers cannot be effectively secured from Abuja alone. The Senate has already endorsed state police, and President Tinubu has asked the National Assembly to amend the Police Act. State police must become a reality. The Inspector-General of Police also recommended recruiting 190,000 officers; only 50,000 are planned for 2025. This gap must be closed urgently.
3. Address Root Causes
Military force alone cannot win. Kaduna State Governor Uba Sani has rightly advocated for an integrated approach that balances military strength with community engagement and development. President Tinubu has instructed that abandoned grazing reserves be converted into functional ranches to defuse farmer-herder conflicts. We also need massive investment in education, agriculture, and youth employment in the most affected regions to dry up the pool of recruits for criminal gangs.
4. Invest in Technology and Intelligence
We keep reacting instead of preventing. A unified national database, championed by Chief of Defence Staff General Christopher Musa, is essential. We need drones, satellite surveillance, and critically financial intelligence units that can track ransom payments digitally. The National Counter-Terrorism Centre’s new 2025-2030 strategy must be fully funded, not just launched.
5. Enforce Accountability for Dangerous Rhetoric
Freedom of speech is sacred, but it is not a licence to incite or legitimize terror. The DSS should investigate any individual whose public statements suggest complicity with or sympathy for criminal groups. We must strengthen laws against incitement while protecting legitimate dissent. Words that fuel the fire cannot be without consequence.
6. Cooperate Regionally and Internationally
The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) must be expanded to cover Nigeria’s borders with Niger Republic. International partnerships focused on intelligence sharing, training, and equipment are vital, even as we rightly guard our sovereignty.
Final Thoughts: Words Matter, But Action Matters More
Sheikh Gumi’s remark that kidnappers need ransom to “finance their war machine” is a symptom of a deeper rot a growing tolerance for the intolerable. When a government mediator speaks of “us” when referring to bandits under bombardment, the nation must stop and take note.
But we cannot allow outrage over one man’s words to distract us from the cold, hard numbers: 4,722 abductions, ₦2.57 billion in verified ransom, and 2,742 banditry-related casualties in a single year. This is not a problem that can be wished away with condemnations alone. It demands a fundamental restructuring of how we think about, fund, and execute security in Nigeria.
The kidnapping economy is thriving because the system is broken. Fixing it requires political will, de-centralized policing, technology-driven intelligence, and a genuine commitment to ending the poverty that feeds the fire. Until we do that, the fire will keep spreading no matter how many statements we issue.
What is your take on Sheikh Gumi’s remarks and the state of security in the country? Do you think the government is doing enough, or do we need a completely new approach? Let us know in the comments. Your perspective matters
