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By News Desk

Prime Brief Media | June 18, 2026

ABUJA, NIGERIA — The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to face one of its most delicate policy decisions in months as easing global oil prices following the United States‑Iran ceasefire collide with persistent domestic inflationary pressures.

This is coming after a ceasefire agreement, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of disruption, triggered a sharp decline in global crude prices, with Brent crude falling from a peak of about $114 per barrel to nearly $101 per barrel. For Nigeria, however, the policy implications are far more complex.

Headline inflation rose to 15.93 per cent in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, while food inflation stood at 16.96 per cent year‑on‑year. The SBM Jollof Index, which tracks the cost of preparing a standard family‑sized pot of jollof rice, reached N30,435 in April before easing slightly to N29,800 as of early June.

SBM Intelligence warned that premature rate cuts could undermine recent gains in inflation management, particularly given lingering uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire agreement and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. "The challenge ahead for the MPC is to engineer a measured easing cycle as global prices fall, without triggering renewed inflation if the ceasefire breaks down or if the US–Iran agreement stalls in ratification."