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Abuja, FCT – By Prime Brief Media

Nigeria’s Federation oil earnings suffered a dramatic ₦78.7 billion decline in March 2026, official figures released at the weekend have revealed, even as global crude oil prices maintained an upward trajectory. The paradox—higher prices but lower revenue—has triggered alarm among fiscal authorities and economists, who point to a combination of reduced production volumes, persistent pipeline vandalism, and governance lapses within the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

Data from the Office of the Accountant‑General of the Federation show that gross oil revenue dropped sharply compared to February, leaving a gaping hole in the expected inflow to the Federation Account. Industry analysts note that Nigeria’s daily crude output has struggled to consistently meet its OPEC quota, with security challenges in the Niger Delta and technical issues at key terminals limiting exports. The situation is further complicated by allegations that the NNPCL has not been remitting the full proceeds from crude sales, a charge the company denies.

Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu, acknowledged the challenge and said the government is working urgently with security agencies and the NNPCL to plug revenue leakages. “We are aware of the shortfall and are taking measures to boost production and ensure that every kobo due to the Federation is accounted for. This is a temporary setback that we are determined to overcome,” Bagudu said. The decline comes at a particularly difficult time, with the Federal Government relying on oil revenue to fund the ₦37 trillion 2026 budget and service a debt burden that President Tinubu recently disclosed would cost $11.6 billion this year.

Economists warn that continued revenue underperformance could force additional borrowing or lead to budget cuts, with potential consequences for infrastructure projects and social programmes. The Federation Account Allocation Committee is expected to address the issue at its next meeting.

Prime Brief Media will report on further economic indicators and official responses as they become available.

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