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LAGOS, NIGERIA ― By Prime Brief Media

Nigeria and oil firms operating in the country have earned approximately $4 billion in additional revenue from the dramatic rise in crude oil prices triggered by the ongoing military confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

According to analysis conducted by Vanguard, the war, which commenced on February 28, 2026, has now lasted for 52 days as of Monday. Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, the average price of Nigeria‘s Bonny Light crude oil, year-to-date, stood at $70.14 per barrel. During the 52 days of the conflict, the average price of Bonny Light surged to $116.84 per barrel, representing a 66.6 percent increase.

Data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shows that Nigeria’s oil output rose to 1.546 million barrels per day in March, up from 1.483 million barrels per day in February. At the pre-crisis average price of $70.14 per barrel, this production level over 52 days would yield approximately $5.64 billion in oil revenue. However, at the post-crisis average price of $116.84 per barrel, the same production level yields $9.393 billion in oil revenue over the same period.

This translates to a windfall of approximately $4 billion for the Nigerian government and oil firms operating in the country.

The price of Bonny Light rose to $98 per barrel on Monday from $95 in the global market, following the collapse of talks between the United States and Iran over the weekend. Crude oil prices had dropped to $90 per barrel from $100 last week as market watchers anticipated that the talks would culminate in an agreement in Islamabad, Pakistan‘s capital.

Speaking to Vanguard Energy, the Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, projected that crude prices will continue to rise in the coming weeks due to tensions, speculation, and uncertainties in the market. “The market will be driven by heightened conflict and instability. The impact will not be limited to the upstream segment; it will spill over into the downstream, leading to higher prices of petroleum products, especially Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol,” Jeremiah stated.

The National President of the Oil and Gas Services Providers Association of Nigeria, Mazi Colman Obasi, noted that the expected surge in energy costs will impact the domestic economy but may not be as severe as it could have been due to the operations of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Despite the substantial windfall, analysts caution that the broader economic benefits to Nigerian citizens may be muted. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has projected that Nigeria could earn between N2.3 trillion and N30 trillion in oil revenues depending on how long the conflict persists. However, the transmission of higher oil revenues to improved living standards remains constrained by existing structural challenges, including fuel import dependency and the pass-through effects of higher global energy prices on domestic inflation.

Prime Brief Media continues to monitor developments in global energy markets and their implications for Nigeria’s fiscal position and macroeconomic stability.